Conditional probability and police shootings

A political scientist writes:

You might have already seen this, but in case not: PNAS published a paper [Officer characteristics and racial disparities in fatal officer-involved shootings, by David Johnson, Trevor Tress, Nicole Burkel, Carley Taylor, and Joseph Cesario] recently finding no evidence of racial bias in police shootings:

Jonathan Mummolo and Dean Knox noted that the data cannot actually lead to any substantive conclusions one way or another, because the authors invert the conditional probability of interest (actually, the problem is a little more complicated, involving assumptions about base rates). They wrote a letter to PNAS pointing this out, but unfortunately PNAS decided not to publish it.

Maybe blogworthy? (If so, maybe immediately rather than on normal lag given prominence of study?)

OK, here it is.


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